2008 Critical Review

Turning Up the Heat on the Climate Change Discussion
Prospects for Future Climate and Reasons for Early Action

Featuring Michael MacCracken of The Climate Institute

The potential catastrophic results of climate change are no secret. Melting ice caps, rising sea levels, more intense storms and hurricanes—we hear about them almost daily on TV, read about them in newspapers and magazines, and watch them brought to vivid effect in much-publicized movies like The Day After
Tomorrow.

But have reports of the planet’s demise been greatly exaggerated? Perhaps, but it seems obvious to most that the severity of climate change will depend on our ability to act…soon. Come hear the latest science on what needs to be done to stop global warming and stabilize temperatures when Michael MacCracken, chief scientist for climate change programs at The Climate Institute, presents A&WMA’s 38th annual Critical Review on Wednesday, June 25.

Combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas—and, to a lesser extent, land cover change—are rapidly increasing the concentrations of climate-warming gases in the atmosphere. According to MacCracken, to limit the most adverse consequences of climate change—such as a sea level rise of one meter or more over the next century or two—society needs to shift away from energy technologies that release carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases over the next several decades.

Research has shown that past emissions have initiated warming of approximately 0.1 to 0.2 ºC per decade over the last few decades, leading to accelerated melting of snow cover and Arctic sea ice, more frequent heavy precipitation events, intensified severe storms, and shifts in the natural ranges of plants and animals. Global average warming above preindustrial levels is already about 0.8 ºC,and present atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases will, as equilibrium is established with current composition, lead to another 0.5 ºC. Warming is increasing at a rate of 0.2 ºC or more per decade and recent reports to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are more and more confident in observational evidence that these changes are the result of human activity on Earth.

MacCracken will present potential future climate scenarios, and offer reasons society must act now to avoid severe consequences. Afterward, other experts in the environmental field will critique his discussion and conclusions,and perhaps offer alternative views.

Symposium

The 2008 Critical Review program will be complemented with a Climate Change and Sustainability Symposium, which will include a high-level panel on the Western States Initiative and a series of expert panels on the current status of science and policy issues related to climate change.

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