COP 26 Least Developed Countries and Progress Toward NDCs
COP 26— Presentations from Friday, Nov. 5 on LDC groups of Indigenous Amazonians, Indigenous Pacific Islanders, and Aboriginal Peoples as well as reports from multiple countries on their assessment of progress in implementing their NDCs, which are called Multilateral Assessments or MAs.
Friday, November 5, 2021 was divided into several sessions. First, there was time devoted to having the Least Developed Countries' (LDCs) Expert Group (LEG) discuss adaptation needs and status. Presentations by various LDCs were made, including ones from Indigenous Amazonians, Indigenous Pacific Islanders, Aboriginal Peoples and others.
The Keynote Speaker for the LEGs was Courteney Rattray Ohrlls, UNFCCC Group of Experts I. Major points being made by these groups according to the speaker were:
- Efforts were underway by LDCs to decarbonize housing stock
- Developing indigenous people renewal energy sources
- Completing National Adaptation Plans (NAPs)
- Adaptation must happen in parallel to GHG reductions in developed countries
- LDCs are at risk due to slow GHG reductions and commitments from the Paris Agreement not being seriously adhered to
- There are over 1.1 billion people in LDCs
- GGs could still pull us back from the “cliff's edge” but need more funding to finance development of country NDCs & NAPs for LDCs because LDCs are not completing their NDCs fast enough
Most of the afternoon was devoted to assessment of progress of various countries in implementing their NDCs. These assessments are called Multilateral Assessments or MAs (Euro-speak). Sessions for each of ten countries were set up that allowed them to present their documented progress towards the goals made in 2015 in Paris. Other counties could then raise questions as to why a goal wasn't met or ask for clarification on the statistics being presented.
The ten countries presenting today were:
Kazakhstan Great Britain
To sample these sessions, I listened in on Poland, Slovenia and Great Britain. However, as a rule based on what I've observed so far this week, the small nations listed above and for subsequent MAs have statistically little to significantly contribute to the current crisis resolution to meet 1.5C temperature rise. Many, I would guess a majority of, contribute less than 1% of global GHGs. China, United States, India and the rest of the G20 emit over 80% of 2020 global GHG emissions. The other 175 or so countries total less than the other 20%. In addition, as global atmospheric temperature has risen, an increasing fraction of GHGs will be coming from natural sources like permafrost melting (vast amounts of pent up methane being released which is essentially raw natural gas, and increased forest fires) as discussed in the latest IPCC 6th Annual Report (see my background/introductory remarks from October 31 for the web page link to the AR6).
- Energy grid is mostly based on coal fired power because of the large coal resource in Silesia
- Claims to have met their goals so far as of 2020
- GHGs have been reduced by 24% since 1988 while the economy has grown 13.8% between 2004 and 2020
- Transportation, small industry and agriculture emissions have been reduced by 21% since 1990
- Shooting for another 7% reduction by 2030 from 2008 levels, and a reduction of 23% by 2020
- Shooting for carbon-neutral by 2050
- Energy sector is over 80% of its GHGs in 2019
- Whereas EU is targeting a 31% reduction in energy emissions from 1990, Slovenia can only commit to a 17.8% reduction (4% more emissions than their target) in 2020 from 2005 and 80% reduction by 2030
- Target of reducing GHGs by 68% by 2030, net-zero carbon by 2050 and 78% by 2035 compared to 1990 emission levels
- The UK NDC strategy just published promises a “Decade of Delivery” between 2020 and 2030
- Energy sector was 40% coal-fired in 2010 and was only 2% in 2020
- Great Britain is on its 4th Multilateral Assessment since 1990 through 2019 and during this time their economy has grown by 75% while GHGs have been reduced by 44%
- UK will continue to use the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) even though there was an expiration of 12/31/2020 in the Paris Agreement, and estimates an additional 5% reduction can be effected using ETS in conjunction with the standard NDCs
- UK Parliament has approved planning for a “large scale” nuclear facility to speed up reaching carbon neutrality
- UK Parliament has approved purchase and installation of 30,000 hectares off new forests
- Why is waste sector N2O projected to increase by 11 MM tonnes (India)?
- Why are fugitive CO2 emissions from fuels up 25% in the last 5 years (India)?
- Why is natural gas use not decreasing in the last report period (Korea)?
- What are your plans to reduce coal use in the non-energy sectors (Korea)?
- Other questions were presented by China, Switzerland and Poland