Countdown to COP 30: Paris Agreement

• By: AWMA
• On: 11/13/2025 11:16:19
• In: COP 30
• Comments: 0

It is probably useful to review the Paris Agreement to fully appreciate the developments at COP30: Amazonia, the United Nations Conference on Climate Change in Belém, Brazil, on November 10-21, 2025. It is also useful to update the U.S. involvement in the Paris Agreement since the U.S. is one of the largest historical emitters of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as reviewed in a previous post.

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What is the Paris Agreement?
 

• The Paris Agreement is an international treaty under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted in December 2015 at COP21 in Paris, France.  
• Its core goal: to hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels, and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C.  
• Using a “bottom-up” approach, each country submits its own nationally determined contribution (NDC) to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, adapt to climate change, and report on progress.  
• The Paris Agreement also includes cooperative elements: adaptation, finance flows (especially from developed to developing countries), transparency and review mechanisms.  

In summary, the Paris Agreement is a global framework for climate action, relying on voluntary country commitments, reporting/monitoring, and periodic review to ramp up ambition over time.

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How has U.S. support for the Paris Agreement changed over time?

[Merlyn Hough has attempted to answer this question in the most objective and informative way possible, remembering that the Air & Waste Management Association is a nonpartisan professional organization that provides a neutral forum for information exchange to support informed environmental decision-making.]

The United States' engagement with the Paris Agreement has been somewhat inconsistent, with these key milestones:
 

• Under Barack Obama, the United States was a central driver of the Paris deal, and formally joined/accepted it on September 3, 2016.  
• On June 1, 2017, under Donald Trump's first term, the U.S. announced its intent to withdraw, citing economic concerns.  
• The formal notification of withdrawal was submitted on November 4, 2019, and the U.S. officially left on November 4, 2020 (per Article 28 of the Agreement).  
• Then, under Joe Biden, on January 20, 2021, the U.S. signed to re-join, and on February 19, 2021, it officially re-entered the Paris Agreement.  
  More recently, the Trump administration (in a second term) has again directed the U.S. to withdraw via Executive Order 14162 (January 20, 2025) and submitted notification to the U.N. Secretary-General, with the withdrawal taking effect one year later under the treaty rules (effective January 27, 2026) unless reversed.  

Thus, U.S. support has oscillated: strong original engagement → withdrawal → re-entry → withdrawal process underway again.

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What is the current U.S. status with the Paris Agreement?

As of now (November 2025), here's where things stand:
 

• The U.S. is not currently counted as formally withdrawn — the notification process has been set in motion and the effective date is projected as January 27, 2026.  
• In practice, with the administration indicating withdrawal, the U.S. is likely scaling back participation, climate finance and reporting commitments under the Paris framework.  
• From a federal policy perspective, the U.S. government's stance has shifted away from active commitment to the Paris goals: the 2025 executive order frames withdrawal as an “America First” repositioning away from international climate obligations.  
• At the same time, there is substantial sub-federal and state-level action to continue pursuing Paris-style climate goals (see next section).
• Legal withdrawal takes effect after one year from formal notification; until then, the U.S. remains technically a Party to the Agreement.  

In summary, the U.S. has signaled withdrawal and is on course to leave in early 2026, but as of now remains formally in, though with uncertain federal engagement.

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How is the U.S. Climate Alliance involved?

The U.S. Climate Alliance is a key piece of how climate action in the U.S. is being maintained at sub-federal levels despite federal policy shifts.
 

• The U.S. Climate Alliance is a bipartisan coalition of governors, launched in June 2017 by the governors of Washington, New York and California in response to the U.S. federal government's decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement.  
• Its mission: states are committed to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement even if the federal government does not.  
• As of the most recent data, the Alliance includes 24 governors representing approximately 55% of the U.S. population and about 60% of the U.S. economy.  
• The Alliance's targets: collectively reduce net GHG emissions at least 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025, 50-52% by 2030, 61-66% by 2035, and reach net-zero emissions as soon as practicable, no later than 2050.  
• It has committed to tracking/reporting progress, implementing state policies (carbon markets, clean energy standards, methane reduction, etc.) and collaborating across states to maintain momentum.  
• When the federal government again signalled withdrawal in 2025, the Alliance sent a letter to the UN stating they would continue America's work to achieve the Paris goals regardless.  

In summary, the U.S. Climate Alliance is essentially a “state-level fallback” mechanism: even when federal policy shifts away from Paris commitments, a large bloc of states remains committed and active.

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Why does this matter?
 

• Because the U.S. is one of the world's largest historical emitters of greenhouse gases, its participation (or non-participation) in the Paris Agreement has substantial significance for global climate action credibility.
• While the Paris Agreement is framed around voluntary national commitments (not legally binding emission cuts), absence of the U.S. weakens normative pressure about global ambition.
• Even when the federal government withdraws or reduces its commitment, state and local actions (through the U.S. Climate Alliance, cities, businesses) can still drive significant emissions reductions and innovation.
• However, without federal support (and finance flows to developing countries) there is concern about hitting the scale of ambition the science suggests is needed.
• Given the recent announcement of withdrawal effective 2026, the situation remains fluid and subject to future political change.

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Ram Ramanan and Merlyn Hough, as official A&WMA observers of COP30, will be communicating back to the A&WMA members in real time through a blog that will be available to all members through the Association website. Posts from COP30 and previous COPs can be found on the A&WMA blog page at: https://www.awma.org/blog_home.asp?Category=12