COP 30: Emissions Gap and Intensified Negotiations (Nov. 17)

• By: AWMA
• On: 11/19/2025 09:34:47
• In: COP 30
• Comments: 0

Meetings are starting earlier and ending later to finalize negotiations at the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) inBelém, Pará, Brazil, on November 10-21, 2025. More than 56,000 people are registered, representing 193 countries plus the European Union, with both in-person and virtual participation.

Last week, the Global Carbon Project released a report showing that fossil-fuel emissions are expected to exceed 38 billion metric tons this year. The report concludes that staying below 1.5°C of global warming is no longer realistic, underscoring the scale of the challenge ahead. Inger Andersen, UN Environment Programme (UNEP) Executive Director reported: “Today's report is clear: While new national climate plans have delivered some progress and help narrow the emissions gap in 2035, we are still off track to deliver Paris Agreement goals. The report shows that if all current targets are fully implemented, global temperatures are still projected to rise 2.3–2.5°C this century. That means we need to deliver unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window – with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop. But we should not, and cannot, despair. To the contrary, we must become even more determined. As António Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General, said during the launch, ‘This is no reason to surrender. It's a reason to step up and speed up.'”

Inger Andersen continued: “The mitigation potential in wind, solar and forestry remains sufficient to bridge the 2°C gap in 2035. For the first time, renewable energy sources surpassed coal as the world's largest source of electricity in the first half of 2025. As renewable costs continue to plummet, we have – with the right policies – the chance for this to become the new norm. And, as UNEP's International Methane Emissions Observatory - IMEO data shows, action is growing to tackle short-lived climate pollutants like methane, which can bring temperatures down quickly. Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action – action that delivers faster economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security and resilience.”

Read the full report and Press Release that makes three summary points and provides additional details: 

• Under a third of Parties to Paris Agreement submitted new NDCs by 30 September 2025
• Global temperatures now predicted to reach 2.3-2.5°C, down from 2.6-2.8°C last year
• Lack of ambition and action means exceedance of 1.5°C is approaching

As a result, we expect negotiation efforts to intensify in these final days of COP30. Thus the reason for the earlier start and later stop times on the daily meetings.

Ram Ramanan and Merlyn Hough, as official A&WMA observers of COP30, will be communicating back to the A&WMA members in real time through a blog that will be available to all members through the Association website. Posts from COP30 and previous COPs can be found on the A&WMA blog page at: https://www.awma.org/blog_home.asp?Category=12